Well, Mayor Nagin says we can come back on Thursday. They are doing a staged re-entry, called "Tiers." This is different from Katrina, where they allowed people back based on zip code. "Tier 1" are government officials and contractors, as well as anyone affiliated with the health care system. They were allowed back in today.
"Tiers 2 & 3" are people who own businesses and need to check on inventory in order to get their shops up and running again. They will be allowed back tomorrow. Everyone else is allowed to come back on Thursday.
Nagin said he wished he had a few more days before having to open the city. I am sure he is under quite a bit of pressure, as at some point, the federal government would have to start handing out subsidies again, like they did for Katrina. He also said that anyone "in a fragile state" or with special needs should not come back yet. Further, he said that anyone that does come back will "be on their own for a few days."
This could mean we won't have electricity for a while, although I did talk to Barry Franklin today, who stayed and said the French Quarter, Uptown, and the Bywater all had power. (That doesn't mean we have power at our house, btw. I have been trying to call, hoping my answering machine will kick in, but so far all I get is a phone company message about trouble with the system.)
Right now, our plan is to leave early afternoon Thursday (as early as we can get these late night bartenders to move). We are going to stop for dinner at Lambert's Cafe in Foley, AL, which is about 3.5 hours from Dothan. From there we will probably stop at a grocery to get some food and head on in. I'll post tomorrow with any more details I find out.
I did hear from Steve Edwards. He and his family are heading up to his mother-in-law's house in Chicago for a couple of days. Depending on what we find out when we get back to New Orleans, they are planning on coming back on Saturday.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Gustav Update #6
It does indeed look like New Orleans actually did dodge a bullet this time. Storm damage is extensive, but not as devastating (at least for New Orleans) as it was with Katrina. Entergy estimates a minimum of 850,000 customers are without power. More important, however, is that New Orleans and Baton Rouge have been cut off from the national grid. They are essentially an island when it comes to electricity. The only power being provided in the region is that which is being produced locally at the various plants.
All of the roads leading into New Orleans are being heavily guarded to prevent anyone from getting into the city. The earliest anyone can possibly get in would be Thursday. Even then, there might not be electricity for several days.
The evacuation for Gustav represented the largest in US history. It is estimated 2 million people, including 1.1 million from the New Orleans metropolitan area (which includes communities on the north shore of lake Ponchartrain) evacuated. Not counting "first responders" (local police, firefighters, and National Guard) it is estimated there are less than 10,000 people in the city of New Orleans.
I heard from our friend Keith Davis in Hammond. Their house survived with no major damage.
Today's menu includes the rest of the meat "rescued" from The Joint, as well as Chicken and Sausage Gumbo. We'd rather be home, but we don't need to be miserable.
All of the roads leading into New Orleans are being heavily guarded to prevent anyone from getting into the city. The earliest anyone can possibly get in would be Thursday. Even then, there might not be electricity for several days.
The evacuation for Gustav represented the largest in US history. It is estimated 2 million people, including 1.1 million from the New Orleans metropolitan area (which includes communities on the north shore of lake Ponchartrain) evacuated. Not counting "first responders" (local police, firefighters, and National Guard) it is estimated there are less than 10,000 people in the city of New Orleans.
I heard from our friend Keith Davis in Hammond. Their house survived with no major damage.
Today's menu includes the rest of the meat "rescued" from The Joint, as well as Chicken and Sausage Gumbo. We'd rather be home, but we don't need to be miserable.
Monday, September 1, 2008
Gustav Update #5
So far, it looks like Gustav's bark was much worse than its bite, at least as far as New Orleans was concerned. I heard from Coop about 5PM CDT. The power is back on in the quarter and they are opening up for the evening to serve anyone who want to eat. In addition to Coop, Barry Franklin, Laura Roe, Jason Palmer, and a couple of other employees road out the storm in New Orleans and are there to keep the place open.
The Weather Channel and CNN are reporting that winds are down to a sustained 16 mph. It looks like there is one more major band of storms that will be going through later tonight. The biggest concern with this set of storms will be the possibility of tornados.
We continue to keep a wary eye on things, however. Mayor Nagin reports that the sewer system is not functioning. The thought of 300,000 people who can't flush coming back into the city doesn't excite me in the least. We also are mindful of the fact that it looked like New Orleans escaped the worst of Katrina until well after the storm had left the area. In fact, by 10:23 AM on 8/29/05 I was already writing about how New Orleans had dodged another bullet. It wasn't until the morning of the 30th that we started seeing the extent of the damage. So we are very much in a wait and see mode here.
Everyone is getting along great. It is a little like The Big Chill, with 15 people staying in a pretty big house, except no one died (well, except for Nigel the cat). Everyone is anxious to get home, but understands this is part and parcel of life in New Orleans, and everyone is happy to chip in to make this as fun as possible under the circumstances.
Assuming everything checks out tomorrow, we hope to be on the road home as soon as Wednesday or perhaps Thursday. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
The Weather Channel and CNN are reporting that winds are down to a sustained 16 mph. It looks like there is one more major band of storms that will be going through later tonight. The biggest concern with this set of storms will be the possibility of tornados.
We continue to keep a wary eye on things, however. Mayor Nagin reports that the sewer system is not functioning. The thought of 300,000 people who can't flush coming back into the city doesn't excite me in the least. We also are mindful of the fact that it looked like New Orleans escaped the worst of Katrina until well after the storm had left the area. In fact, by 10:23 AM on 8/29/05 I was already writing about how New Orleans had dodged another bullet. It wasn't until the morning of the 30th that we started seeing the extent of the damage. So we are very much in a wait and see mode here.
Everyone is getting along great. It is a little like The Big Chill, with 15 people staying in a pretty big house, except no one died (well, except for Nigel the cat). Everyone is anxious to get home, but understands this is part and parcel of life in New Orleans, and everyone is happy to chip in to make this as fun as possible under the circumstances.
Assuming everything checks out tomorrow, we hope to be on the road home as soon as Wednesday or perhaps Thursday. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
Gustav Update #4
As I am writing this, Gustav has just made landfall near Cocodrie, LA. It is a category 3 storm. Hurricane strength winds are starting to pummel New Orleans. This storm is different from Katrina. Katrina's eye went east of the city by about 40-50 miles, so the city was spared the worst winds in the Northeast quadrant. Gustav puts that quadrant right over the city.
The levees on the west side of the Industrial Canal (the one that obliterated the Lower Ninth ward) have overtopped, and perhaps breached. Water is flowing into the city in this location like a river. Be prepared to see a flurry of conspiracy theories about this. Those of you who followed by web site after Katrina might remember that I questioned how the feds chose to spend their money in fixing the levees on the Industrial Canal after Katrina. Here's what I had to say in Update #74 on May 6, 2006:
Here's the deal: they built this massive flood wall on the east side of the Industrial canal, which protects a largely unpopulated lower ninth ward. While they did some shoring up, the west side of the canal did not receive the same kind of attention as the east side. This is pure physics, people. The east flood wall is stronger and higher and the water needs somewhere to go. It seems obvious to me that the west wall is going to give with any kind of storm surge. Since the storm is literally pushing water against this wall, overtopping or a breach is almost inevitable. Seems like the powers that be are using mother nature for urban renewal.
I understand Shell Beach, where Coop had his boat before Katrina, is experiencing a 10 foot storm surge right now. Coop pulled his boat up to his house before the storm. CNN is also reporting that the Mississippi River is running in reverse, at least on the surface, at New Orleans. We also know the power is out throughout the city.
We left New Orleans about 3 PM yesterday (Sunday, 8/31/08). Our caravan this time included Janis and myself, Cary and Andrea, Adam, Jarret, and Coop's bartender (and good friend) Fay Sanchez in our van, and Juli Green, her boyfriend Mikey Dressler, and Allan Fickling following us with four cats in Juli's car. Of all the wonderful, generous choices we had for places to go and people with whom to stay, we narrowed it down to two: The Chili House in Meridian, MS (owned by some Coop's out of town regulars), or Dothan, AL where the mother-in-law of Fernanda Weakly, who used to work for me at MacSpeech. Availability of gas was also a consideration. Although I topped off the tank on Saturday, we had done a lot of running around helping others prepare, so we were down to about 3/4 of a tank, with no more gas available in New Orleans. The plan was to head northeast on I-59 into Mississippi rather than straight east on I-10, which runs along the coast. This would be safer as the outer bands started coming in, and would also provide more choices for gas.
We thought we had it in the bag. There was hardly anyone on I-10. We went 70 miles per hour all the way through the city, across the twin spans, past Slidell, and onto I-59. At the I-10/I-59 split traffic was forced northward onto I-59, so we couldn't have gone east on I-10 if we wanted to. For the first 6 or 7 miles we were able to continue traveling 70 mph. Then we hit the evacuation traffic. Contraflow started just south of the Louisiana/Mississippi state line. With traffic at pretty much a standstill on the northbound lanes, we cheated and crossed over to the southbound lanes (which were now traveling northbound). We weren't the only ones. We were going 70 mph again for a about 6 miles, then back to a dead standstill. The next 24 miles we averaged 5-6 miles per hour. The exits were blocked. No one could exit if they wanted to. It didn't matter, however, as all the gas stations along this part of I-59 had run out of gas hours before.
Just south of Poplarville the traffic in the southbound lanes (including us) were shifted back to the northbound lanes. The shift over process took a little over an hour over a two mile distance. Traffic started moving a little faster, but was still slow because everyone else who was running out of gas was exiting at Poplarville, which was also the first exit in Mississippi at which cars were allowed to exit. Thank God (and Steve Jobs) for iPhones! we already knew there was no gas in Poplarville. We had information that there was gas in Lumberton, so we exited at exit 35. At this point we had less than 40 miles to go until empty, and Juli's car was down to less than a quarter of a tank. The gas station at the exit was closed, so we pulled into a parking lot to stretch, allow those who smoke to do so, and regroup. While we were there, someone driving a Mississippi Department of Transportation truck pulled in and asked if we needed any help. We asked about gas stations and he told us about several within a short distance. We were able to fill up the cars, get some refreshments, and take a badly needed bathroom break. We had been on the road over 6 hours to go a distance that normally would have taken a little over an hour. Along the way, however, we encountered our first casualty: Mikey's cat Nigel died while we were in the evacuation standstill. Nigel was 19 years old. Mikey and July buried him underneath a flag pole in Lumberton.
While we were in Lumberton a police officer told us a tornado had touched down in the French Quarter. As you can imagine, this scared us. We were able to get through to Coop at Coop's Place, who told us a tornado in fact had NOT touched down. It turned out that funnel clouds were sighted and there was a tornado warning, but no touch down. Back on the road.
The plan was to drive to Laurel, MS and then decide whether we were going to keep going northeast or cut to the east to head to Dothan. While on the road we heard from Coop's regulars Kevin and Bob, who were at a standstill over 20 miles south of Meridian. As we continued north (we were now traveling at about 60 mph), we listened to WWL radio out of New Orleans and learned the backup near Meridian was getting worse. One person called in to report the backup was now just north of Laurel, which is 60 miles southwest of Meridian. No one had the stomach for sitting in bumper to bumper traffic again, so we decided to cut east just south of Hattiesburg, MS on US 98. At this point, we were 300 miles from Dothan, AL — about the same distance as if we had left directly from New Orleans. We had no choice. The only place to get gas was north, not east.
The rest of the trip was smooth sailing. We took US 98 to north of Mobile, AL, where we stopped to get a bite to eat at a Waffle House. The stress was running pretty high at this point, so I sat down with a couple of people and talked them down a bit. It was only a minor issue, but I didn't want it escalating as we still had 3 hours to go. At this point it was after midnight, and around 1AM when we finally got on the road again. We took I-65 northeast to US 84, where we gassed up, and then headed pretty much due east to Dothan. There was hardly any traffic on these roads from the time we left I-59 near Hattiesburg - something for which I was very thankful. When we did pass a car, it almost always had Louisiana plates. While listening to WWL radio we found out it took someone 5 hours to get from Hattiesburg to Meridian. The problem was apparently people who got tired of gridlock on I-55 and took US 98, US 84, and I-20 east to I-59. It turns out that although we had to go a further distance, we arrived in Dothan about the same time we would have arrived in Meridian. We pulled in at around 4AM - 13 hours after we left. This trip would normally have taken about 6 hours (and New Orleans to Meridian is only about 2.5 hours!).
I don't have too much information on people yet, but here is what I do know:
Well, it is certainly too early to make any decisions about what we are going to do. The storm has to completely pass from the New Orleans area and the local authorities need to assess the damage. We will hunker down here until at least Thursday, unless they say we can come back sooner. Katrina taught us how to be nomads, if necessary, so we will try not to be too much of a burden on any one of our friends for too long. Hopefully it won't come to that.
But for the immediate future, well, it is Labor Day and what better thing to do than BBQ? Both Allan and Mikey work at The Joint, which has some of the best BBQ ribs anywhere. They brought a bunch of ribs and some other goodies. Janis and I also brought fixins' for Chicken and Sausage Gumbo. We can't offer much, but we do make sure our hosts eat well.
Get Faster Updates
Do you know about Twitter? This is a neat little thing that allows its users to "micro-blog" what they are doing. There is a limit of 140 characters and there are a variety of programs for the iPhone that allow you to add pictures, GPS location, etc. Last night, I posted to Twitter as we were traveling (don't worry, I didn't text and drive - we were either stopped or someone typed for me). You can sign up for a free account at http://twitter.com/home. Once you have done that you can follow my posts at http://twitter.com/thechuck. You can also follow my Twitter posts on my Facebook page.
I'll try to update what I find out about people tonight, as well as anything else I find out that you may not be able to hear about on the news networks or weather channel.
The levees on the west side of the Industrial Canal (the one that obliterated the Lower Ninth ward) have overtopped, and perhaps breached. Water is flowing into the city in this location like a river. Be prepared to see a flurry of conspiracy theories about this. Those of you who followed by web site after Katrina might remember that I questioned how the feds chose to spend their money in fixing the levees on the Industrial Canal after Katrina. Here's what I had to say in Update #74 on May 6, 2006:
Maybe it's just me, but since the Lower Ninth was prettty much decimated already, wouldn't it have made more sense to put in some temporary protection over there and shore up the part that protects what wasn't so badly damaged?
Here's the deal: they built this massive flood wall on the east side of the Industrial canal, which protects a largely unpopulated lower ninth ward. While they did some shoring up, the west side of the canal did not receive the same kind of attention as the east side. This is pure physics, people. The east flood wall is stronger and higher and the water needs somewhere to go. It seems obvious to me that the west wall is going to give with any kind of storm surge. Since the storm is literally pushing water against this wall, overtopping or a breach is almost inevitable. Seems like the powers that be are using mother nature for urban renewal.
I understand Shell Beach, where Coop had his boat before Katrina, is experiencing a 10 foot storm surge right now. Coop pulled his boat up to his house before the storm. CNN is also reporting that the Mississippi River is running in reverse, at least on the surface, at New Orleans. We also know the power is out throughout the city.
Our Trip
We left New Orleans about 3 PM yesterday (Sunday, 8/31/08). Our caravan this time included Janis and myself, Cary and Andrea, Adam, Jarret, and Coop's bartender (and good friend) Fay Sanchez in our van, and Juli Green, her boyfriend Mikey Dressler, and Allan Fickling following us with four cats in Juli's car. Of all the wonderful, generous choices we had for places to go and people with whom to stay, we narrowed it down to two: The Chili House in Meridian, MS (owned by some Coop's out of town regulars), or Dothan, AL where the mother-in-law of Fernanda Weakly, who used to work for me at MacSpeech. Availability of gas was also a consideration. Although I topped off the tank on Saturday, we had done a lot of running around helping others prepare, so we were down to about 3/4 of a tank, with no more gas available in New Orleans. The plan was to head northeast on I-59 into Mississippi rather than straight east on I-10, which runs along the coast. This would be safer as the outer bands started coming in, and would also provide more choices for gas.
We thought we had it in the bag. There was hardly anyone on I-10. We went 70 miles per hour all the way through the city, across the twin spans, past Slidell, and onto I-59. At the I-10/I-59 split traffic was forced northward onto I-59, so we couldn't have gone east on I-10 if we wanted to. For the first 6 or 7 miles we were able to continue traveling 70 mph. Then we hit the evacuation traffic. Contraflow started just south of the Louisiana/Mississippi state line. With traffic at pretty much a standstill on the northbound lanes, we cheated and crossed over to the southbound lanes (which were now traveling northbound). We weren't the only ones. We were going 70 mph again for a about 6 miles, then back to a dead standstill. The next 24 miles we averaged 5-6 miles per hour. The exits were blocked. No one could exit if they wanted to. It didn't matter, however, as all the gas stations along this part of I-59 had run out of gas hours before.
Just south of Poplarville the traffic in the southbound lanes (including us) were shifted back to the northbound lanes. The shift over process took a little over an hour over a two mile distance. Traffic started moving a little faster, but was still slow because everyone else who was running out of gas was exiting at Poplarville, which was also the first exit in Mississippi at which cars were allowed to exit. Thank God (and Steve Jobs) for iPhones! we already knew there was no gas in Poplarville. We had information that there was gas in Lumberton, so we exited at exit 35. At this point we had less than 40 miles to go until empty, and Juli's car was down to less than a quarter of a tank. The gas station at the exit was closed, so we pulled into a parking lot to stretch, allow those who smoke to do so, and regroup. While we were there, someone driving a Mississippi Department of Transportation truck pulled in and asked if we needed any help. We asked about gas stations and he told us about several within a short distance. We were able to fill up the cars, get some refreshments, and take a badly needed bathroom break. We had been on the road over 6 hours to go a distance that normally would have taken a little over an hour. Along the way, however, we encountered our first casualty: Mikey's cat Nigel died while we were in the evacuation standstill. Nigel was 19 years old. Mikey and July buried him underneath a flag pole in Lumberton.
While we were in Lumberton a police officer told us a tornado had touched down in the French Quarter. As you can imagine, this scared us. We were able to get through to Coop at Coop's Place, who told us a tornado in fact had NOT touched down. It turned out that funnel clouds were sighted and there was a tornado warning, but no touch down. Back on the road.
The plan was to drive to Laurel, MS and then decide whether we were going to keep going northeast or cut to the east to head to Dothan. While on the road we heard from Coop's regulars Kevin and Bob, who were at a standstill over 20 miles south of Meridian. As we continued north (we were now traveling at about 60 mph), we listened to WWL radio out of New Orleans and learned the backup near Meridian was getting worse. One person called in to report the backup was now just north of Laurel, which is 60 miles southwest of Meridian. No one had the stomach for sitting in bumper to bumper traffic again, so we decided to cut east just south of Hattiesburg, MS on US 98. At this point, we were 300 miles from Dothan, AL — about the same distance as if we had left directly from New Orleans. We had no choice. The only place to get gas was north, not east.
The rest of the trip was smooth sailing. We took US 98 to north of Mobile, AL, where we stopped to get a bite to eat at a Waffle House. The stress was running pretty high at this point, so I sat down with a couple of people and talked them down a bit. It was only a minor issue, but I didn't want it escalating as we still had 3 hours to go. At this point it was after midnight, and around 1AM when we finally got on the road again. We took I-65 northeast to US 84, where we gassed up, and then headed pretty much due east to Dothan. There was hardly any traffic on these roads from the time we left I-59 near Hattiesburg - something for which I was very thankful. When we did pass a car, it almost always had Louisiana plates. While listening to WWL radio we found out it took someone 5 hours to get from Hattiesburg to Meridian. The problem was apparently people who got tired of gridlock on I-55 and took US 98, US 84, and I-20 east to I-59. It turns out that although we had to go a further distance, we arrived in Dothan about the same time we would have arrived in Meridian. We pulled in at around 4AM - 13 hours after we left. This trip would normally have taken about 6 hours (and New Orleans to Meridian is only about 2.5 hours!).
People
I don't have too much information on people yet, but here is what I do know:
- Fay Sanchez, Allan Fickling, Juli Green, and Mikey Dressler are with us, of course, as are our kids and Andrea.
- Kevin and Bob made it past Meridian, although I don't know where they ended up.
- Kattai and Kathleen left on Friday. I can't remember where (Fay knows), but they are safe.
- Jaclyn McCabe is staying at a friend's house in Memphis.
- Steve Edwards and his family made it to Blytheville, AK. They left about 5 AM and pulled into Blytheville around 8:30 PM. Steve said it took over 4 hours to get from his home to the I-10/I-55 split.
- Coop, Laura Roe, Barry Franklin, and Jason Palmer chose to ride out the storm at Coop's Place.
- Mike and Nichole Moses left early and made it to Gatlinburg, TN.
What's Next
Well, it is certainly too early to make any decisions about what we are going to do. The storm has to completely pass from the New Orleans area and the local authorities need to assess the damage. We will hunker down here until at least Thursday, unless they say we can come back sooner. Katrina taught us how to be nomads, if necessary, so we will try not to be too much of a burden on any one of our friends for too long. Hopefully it won't come to that.
But for the immediate future, well, it is Labor Day and what better thing to do than BBQ? Both Allan and Mikey work at The Joint, which has some of the best BBQ ribs anywhere. They brought a bunch of ribs and some other goodies. Janis and I also brought fixins' for Chicken and Sausage Gumbo. We can't offer much, but we do make sure our hosts eat well.
Get Faster Updates
Do you know about Twitter? This is a neat little thing that allows its users to "micro-blog" what they are doing. There is a limit of 140 characters and there are a variety of programs for the iPhone that allow you to add pictures, GPS location, etc. Last night, I posted to Twitter as we were traveling (don't worry, I didn't text and drive - we were either stopped or someone typed for me). You can sign up for a free account at http://twitter.com/home. Once you have done that you can follow my posts at http://twitter.com/thechuck. You can also follow my Twitter posts on my Facebook page.
I'll try to update what I find out about people tonight, as well as anything else I find out that you may not be able to hear about on the news networks or weather channel.
Sunday, August 31, 2008
Gustav Update #3
We took our vote, and the consensus is to leave. It was not unanimous. Given the latest projections, I am not in the least worried about water damage at our house, but there are three things that do bother me enough that I think evacuating is a good idea:
So we are leaving. We hope to be on the road between 2 and 3 PM. Currently, our plan is to take I-10 east out of the city, then I-59 north to Laurel, MS. At that point, we will decide whether to continue north to Meridian (where we have some friends that offered to put us up), or east on US 84 to Dothan, AL.
Rest assured, we aren't taking any chances with our safety. I'll post again as soon as I can.
- Tornados. Storm surge, wind velocity, and precipitation can all be predicted as the storm draws nearer, but Tornados are especially prevelant on the east side of a hurricane or tropical storm. Fay — which never reached hurricane strength — spawned over 100 tornados.
Damage to the car from flying debris. Even if there is not a tornado near us, flying debris could damage our just-acquired mini-van to the point it is not drivable. Since that vehicle is the only one my entire family depends on, I don't want to take that chance.
Lack of basic services after the storm. While we prepared for staying, the water and provisions won't last more than 4 days, and that is if we are very prudent. From what local officials have been saying, it could be over a week before electricity is restored, and longer than that before the grocery stores are open.
So we are leaving. We hope to be on the road between 2 and 3 PM. Currently, our plan is to take I-10 east out of the city, then I-59 north to Laurel, MS. At that point, we will decide whether to continue north to Meridian (where we have some friends that offered to put us up), or east on US 84 to Dothan, AL.
Rest assured, we aren't taking any chances with our safety. I'll post again as soon as I can.
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Gustav Updates #1 & #2
With Gustav taking aim at us in the form of a Category 5 hurricane, it is time once again to send out my periodic hurricane updates. I will send first via email, and then post here as time permits. If you don't already receive my hurricane updates and would like to, please send me an email at thechuck@mac.com.
Yesterday I send the following message to my Hurricane mailing list:
Today, Janis and I have been busy moving things out of the yard into the garage and cleaning coolers and water buckets. The state police is ready to start contra flow on the Interstates as early as this evening (it was not supposed to start until tomorrow).
Gustav was just upgraded to a category 5 during FEMA's most recent news conference — and it hasn't even hit Cuba yet. The area of Cuba it is going to go over is flat and narrow, so significant weakening is not expected to happen. One ominous sign: the Sunday paper just arrived.
We are going to continue to prepare for both staying and leaving. Today we are getting our important papers together and packing clothes. We also cleaned all our coolers and got out the styrofoam coolers we have been saving for just this occasion. We went to the store and picked up some last minute provisions. Whether we stay or leave, we will have the fixens' for some awesome gumbo to feed people.
Tomorrow we will fill the bathtub with water, as well as two 5 gallon coolers and a bunch of pickle buckets, in case we need clean water. We have two full tanks of propane, should they turn the gas off.
We will be taking a vote as a family tomorrow at 11AM as to whether to stay or leave - a vote which will not be final by any means, should we decide at that point to stay. We can always leave a bit later. The important thing will be to see what the storm's track and intensity forecast is tomorrow (Sunday) AM. We do know that it is highly unlikely for it to hit Louisiana as a Category 4 storm, let alone a category 5.
Remember the Walmart that was looted after Katrina? There are now 200 New Orleans police cars parked in the parking lot adjacent to it. Remember the scene at the New Orleans Convention Center after Katrina? There are now 1500-2000 National Guard troops stationed there using it as a staging area. My only concern is why they brought in about 200 howitzers there as well. What the heck do they need those for?
For Katrina, New Orleans had approximately 1600 police officers, 200 of which left the city. Today, as I write this, there are about 1500 police officers in the city and another almost 2000 National Guard troops in town. New Orleans is in a much better position to handle this storm.
Also, what they call "assisted evacuations" are happening. The storm has 17 places identified throughout the city where people can go if they have no other way to get out of town. A city bus picks people up at those spots and takes them to Union Station, where they get on a bus or a train. So far they have moved over 5000 people out of town and are planning on moving as many as 35,000 out this way. They have 700 buses on contract, each of which holds 50 people.
The Mayor has asked that all tourists leave New Orleans now. The last flight out of New Orleans will be at 6PM tonight.
This just in: Janis' part-time boss (who is a retired petroleum engineer) has some inside information from the forecasting service used by the oil companies that there will not be any flooding by our house, but it will be very windy. They are still projecting the storm to curve and go west of the city as a Cat 2 or 3.
Should we decide to leave, we will probably go to Dothan, Alabama. The mother-in-law of the person who used to work for me at MacSpeech has asked us to come there. (She stayed with us for Mia's third birthday party.) It is about a 6 hour drive normally, so we think probably 12 hours under these circumstances.
Tonight we are going to have dinner at Coop's Place - to check up on people and make sure we have their phone numbers, as well as help eat some of the remaining food (we are already pretty cleaned out, except for what is frozen).
For those of you tracking the storm, here is my favorite site:
http://www.stormpulse.com/
Exciting times. I'll write more as I can.
Gustav Update #1 (August 29, 2008; 6:45 PM)
Yesterday I send the following message to my Hurricane mailing list:
Well, I was going to do a lengthier 3rd Anniversary of Katrina update, but with Gustav giving us plenty of warning, Janis and I have been keeping busy getting our ducks in a row, so to speak.
Nonetheless, I did have time to do a small update, which you can view at www.macchuck.com.
For those of you who haven't called or sent a text message yet, we haven't decided whether or not we will be evacuating for Gustav and probably won't decide until sometime on Sunday. If I had to make a decision right now, based on what I am seeing so far, we would stay here as the winds will probably not be much more than tropical storm strength (again, based on what we know now).
Believe me, we will take no chances, but please remember, our house had absolutely no damage from Katrina, so we actually feel we might be safer here than with the nutbuckets on the road for anything less than a direct hit.
I'll keep you updated as things change.
Gustav Update #2 (August 30, 2008; 2:30 PM)
Today, Janis and I have been busy moving things out of the yard into the garage and cleaning coolers and water buckets. The state police is ready to start contra flow on the Interstates as early as this evening (it was not supposed to start until tomorrow).
Gustav was just upgraded to a category 5 during FEMA's most recent news conference — and it hasn't even hit Cuba yet. The area of Cuba it is going to go over is flat and narrow, so significant weakening is not expected to happen. One ominous sign: the Sunday paper just arrived.
We are going to continue to prepare for both staying and leaving. Today we are getting our important papers together and packing clothes. We also cleaned all our coolers and got out the styrofoam coolers we have been saving for just this occasion. We went to the store and picked up some last minute provisions. Whether we stay or leave, we will have the fixens' for some awesome gumbo to feed people.
Tomorrow we will fill the bathtub with water, as well as two 5 gallon coolers and a bunch of pickle buckets, in case we need clean water. We have two full tanks of propane, should they turn the gas off.
We will be taking a vote as a family tomorrow at 11AM as to whether to stay or leave - a vote which will not be final by any means, should we decide at that point to stay. We can always leave a bit later. The important thing will be to see what the storm's track and intensity forecast is tomorrow (Sunday) AM. We do know that it is highly unlikely for it to hit Louisiana as a Category 4 storm, let alone a category 5.
Remember the Walmart that was looted after Katrina? There are now 200 New Orleans police cars parked in the parking lot adjacent to it. Remember the scene at the New Orleans Convention Center after Katrina? There are now 1500-2000 National Guard troops stationed there using it as a staging area. My only concern is why they brought in about 200 howitzers there as well. What the heck do they need those for?
For Katrina, New Orleans had approximately 1600 police officers, 200 of which left the city. Today, as I write this, there are about 1500 police officers in the city and another almost 2000 National Guard troops in town. New Orleans is in a much better position to handle this storm.
Also, what they call "assisted evacuations" are happening. The storm has 17 places identified throughout the city where people can go if they have no other way to get out of town. A city bus picks people up at those spots and takes them to Union Station, where they get on a bus or a train. So far they have moved over 5000 people out of town and are planning on moving as many as 35,000 out this way. They have 700 buses on contract, each of which holds 50 people.
The Mayor has asked that all tourists leave New Orleans now. The last flight out of New Orleans will be at 6PM tonight.
This just in: Janis' part-time boss (who is a retired petroleum engineer) has some inside information from the forecasting service used by the oil companies that there will not be any flooding by our house, but it will be very windy. They are still projecting the storm to curve and go west of the city as a Cat 2 or 3.
Should we decide to leave, we will probably go to Dothan, Alabama. The mother-in-law of the person who used to work for me at MacSpeech has asked us to come there. (She stayed with us for Mia's third birthday party.) It is about a 6 hour drive normally, so we think probably 12 hours under these circumstances.
Tonight we are going to have dinner at Coop's Place - to check up on people and make sure we have their phone numbers, as well as help eat some of the remaining food (we are already pretty cleaned out, except for what is frozen).
For those of you tracking the storm, here is my favorite site:
http://www.stormpulse.com/
Exciting times. I'll write more as I can.
Thursday, August 7, 2008
On Favre
I am not an avid sports fan. For the most part, I am a "fair weather" fan who loves to see certain teams go all the way. The only way I'll watch a World Series is if the Cubs are in it. Hockey doesn't interest me at all, and I'll be watching anything but the Olympics. I admit I'll be keeping an eye on the New Orleans Hornets this year, but otherwise, I haven't followed basketball since Michael Jordan played for the bulls.
But then there is professional football.
I will follow the Packers and Saints win or lose. There is something about the game that piques my interest and motivates me to keep watching. But I must admit the latest chapter in the Favre-Packer relationship has me puzzled.
To be fair, Brett brought this on himself. I can understand how he felt when the Giants stunned the Packers and their fans by knocking Green Bay out of their Super Bowl bid last year. He told the media that he was retiring because anything short of a Super Bowl victory this year would be disappointing for him and with so many good teams, such a victory could not be assured simply by his return.
I get it. He was tired - exhausted even - from playing one of his best seasons ever. He was shocked by the loss. Even so, he should have kept his mouth shut and waited for things to settle down before making any rash decisions. Like Michael Jordan, to stop playing the game would be like trying to stop breathing. Anyone who followed Favre's career at all knows this about him, even if he did not know it about himself until earlier this year.
If you don't think Favre is motivated to play, consider this: the Packers offered him a $20 million marketing deal to stay retired, which he turned down. That's a lot of future-generation-little-Favres' college educations to pass up.
As much as all of this could have been avoided had Favre just waited until this past spring to see how he felt about playing again before saying anything, I feel the Packers have made a huge mistake by letting him go. For the past 16 years the Packers have been defined by Brett Favre's leadership. To not have #4 leading the team - especially after such a great season last year - is very perplexing.
But it is all about business, after all. Aaron Rodgers is getting old sitting on the bench. The Packers, mindful of this and with Favre waffling regarding his return, bet the farm on Rodgers. Their commitment is commendable. Their desire not to go back on their word to him shows their integrity as a business. But businesses are about money, and sometimes circumstances change that require them to make tough decisions.
For instance, considering Aaron Rodgers seems to be either extremely unlucky or injury prone, the Packers acquired two promising, extremely talented backup quarterbacks in Matt Flynn (from LSU) and Brian Bohm (Louisville). Bohm was named the 2005 Big East Offensive Player of the Year while Flynn lead LSU's Tigers to victory in the BCS Championship game last year. So, should Aaron Rodgers not work out, they have plenty of talent. Like I said, it is strictly business. The Packers will have no problem replacing Rodgers with either Flynn or Bohm should it become necessary to do so.
But was that really the best business decision?
Brett Favre is a brand. To not be in a Packers uniform tarnishes that brand. It is as simple as that. The Packers originally said they would not trade him to a conference rival because they were concerned with "tarnishing his legacy." Bull. They were concerned the coveted combination of Favre and Randy Moss might beat the pants off them. It is as simple as that.
I totally understand Favre's desire to play. Professional athletes hardly ever retire after a good season. In fact, most professional athletes either retire from an injury, or when their performance degrades to the point they can no longer compete at a level expected from them by themselves, their team, and their fans. Favre - coming off one of his best years ever - should have known at least that much about himself before retiring.
The Green Bay Packers are unique in that they are owned by a community of shareholders, most of whom live in Green Bay. I don't know the extent to which stockholders have rights in a situation like this, but I do know that each stockholder has voting rights. I also know that an owner of a team can instruct its coaches to do certain things - whether they want to do them or not. Finally, I believe the owner(s) of a professional sports franchise has a responsibility to see the team is managed in a way that represents the best potential financial success. It seems to me the stockholders of the Green Bay Packers have failed both the fans and the team by not forcing the coaching staff and management to retain Favre.
The biggest shock will happen during this football season. Odds are the Packers will not make it to the Super Bowl under Aaron Rodgers. As Favre already pointed out, there are too many other good teams out there. I want you to pay close attention to the Packers this year and wait for the head coach or GM to utter something similar to the following phrase:
Remember - you heard it here first, folks.
There is no need for a rebuilding year. Favre had a great offense at his command last year. The key players are back, and the offense has been shored up with their draft picks. This year's team - with Favre as Quarterback - would have been as talented as the 1996 Packers who went all the way. Perhaps even more so, as the current offense does not depend on guys like Desmond Howard to make the key plays.
While I think it unlikely that either the Favre-less Packers or Favre-enabled Jets will make it to the Super Bowl this year, I think it would have been much more likely that Green Bay could have made it with Favre at the helm. A Super Bowl victory does wonders for a team's bottom line and will carry them many years. Even without a Super Bowl victory, I think the Packer's won-loss record would have been much higher if they had retained Favre.
But what happens if the Jets do go all the way - or even just get in the playoffs and the Packers do not? All the bad decisions of the coaching staff, the management, and the stockholders (for putting up with the coaches and managers) will be exposed, and the damage to the franchise will be just as lingering as would a Super Bowl victory or playoff appearance would be beneficial.
At the end of the day, Brett Favre has to play until he can't any more. It's in his nature, and the Packers should have found a way for him to do that in Green Bay. The Jets were willing to give up Chad Pennington, who was a first round draft pick and is loved and respected in the Jet's locker room. With Matt Flynn and Brian Bohm on board, the Packers should have been willing to do the same with Rodgers to make room for the one guy who eclipsed even the legacy of Bart Starr in their history. As a die-hard Packer fan, I think they owed him that much - and I believe it was their best business decision as well.
Of course, maybe I am wrong. Maybe the Packers know something I don't (I certainly hope so). Maybe they will go all they way with Aaron Rodgers. If they do, I will be cheering them all the way.
But then there is professional football.
I will follow the Packers and Saints win or lose. There is something about the game that piques my interest and motivates me to keep watching. But I must admit the latest chapter in the Favre-Packer relationship has me puzzled.
Favre Partly to Blame
To be fair, Brett brought this on himself. I can understand how he felt when the Giants stunned the Packers and their fans by knocking Green Bay out of their Super Bowl bid last year. He told the media that he was retiring because anything short of a Super Bowl victory this year would be disappointing for him and with so many good teams, such a victory could not be assured simply by his return.
I get it. He was tired - exhausted even - from playing one of his best seasons ever. He was shocked by the loss. Even so, he should have kept his mouth shut and waited for things to settle down before making any rash decisions. Like Michael Jordan, to stop playing the game would be like trying to stop breathing. Anyone who followed Favre's career at all knows this about him, even if he did not know it about himself until earlier this year.
If you don't think Favre is motivated to play, consider this: the Packers offered him a $20 million marketing deal to stay retired, which he turned down. That's a lot of future-generation-little-Favres' college educations to pass up.
Packers Also to Blame
As much as all of this could have been avoided had Favre just waited until this past spring to see how he felt about playing again before saying anything, I feel the Packers have made a huge mistake by letting him go. For the past 16 years the Packers have been defined by Brett Favre's leadership. To not have #4 leading the team - especially after such a great season last year - is very perplexing.
But it is all about business, after all. Aaron Rodgers is getting old sitting on the bench. The Packers, mindful of this and with Favre waffling regarding his return, bet the farm on Rodgers. Their commitment is commendable. Their desire not to go back on their word to him shows their integrity as a business. But businesses are about money, and sometimes circumstances change that require them to make tough decisions.
For instance, considering Aaron Rodgers seems to be either extremely unlucky or injury prone, the Packers acquired two promising, extremely talented backup quarterbacks in Matt Flynn (from LSU) and Brian Bohm (Louisville). Bohm was named the 2005 Big East Offensive Player of the Year while Flynn lead LSU's Tigers to victory in the BCS Championship game last year. So, should Aaron Rodgers not work out, they have plenty of talent. Like I said, it is strictly business. The Packers will have no problem replacing Rodgers with either Flynn or Bohm should it become necessary to do so.
But was that really the best business decision?
Brett Favre is a brand. To not be in a Packers uniform tarnishes that brand. It is as simple as that. The Packers originally said they would not trade him to a conference rival because they were concerned with "tarnishing his legacy." Bull. They were concerned the coveted combination of Favre and Randy Moss might beat the pants off them. It is as simple as that.
I totally understand Favre's desire to play. Professional athletes hardly ever retire after a good season. In fact, most professional athletes either retire from an injury, or when their performance degrades to the point they can no longer compete at a level expected from them by themselves, their team, and their fans. Favre - coming off one of his best years ever - should have known at least that much about himself before retiring.
Where are the Owners?
The Green Bay Packers are unique in that they are owned by a community of shareholders, most of whom live in Green Bay. I don't know the extent to which stockholders have rights in a situation like this, but I do know that each stockholder has voting rights. I also know that an owner of a team can instruct its coaches to do certain things - whether they want to do them or not. Finally, I believe the owner(s) of a professional sports franchise has a responsibility to see the team is managed in a way that represents the best potential financial success. It seems to me the stockholders of the Green Bay Packers have failed both the fans and the team by not forcing the coaching staff and management to retain Favre.
Packers Took The Biggest Risk
The biggest shock will happen during this football season. Odds are the Packers will not make it to the Super Bowl under Aaron Rodgers. As Favre already pointed out, there are too many other good teams out there. I want you to pay close attention to the Packers this year and wait for the head coach or GM to utter something similar to the following phrase:
We knew going into this season it would be a rebuilding year for us.
Remember - you heard it here first, folks.
There is no need for a rebuilding year. Favre had a great offense at his command last year. The key players are back, and the offense has been shored up with their draft picks. This year's team - with Favre as Quarterback - would have been as talented as the 1996 Packers who went all the way. Perhaps even more so, as the current offense does not depend on guys like Desmond Howard to make the key plays.
While I think it unlikely that either the Favre-less Packers or Favre-enabled Jets will make it to the Super Bowl this year, I think it would have been much more likely that Green Bay could have made it with Favre at the helm. A Super Bowl victory does wonders for a team's bottom line and will carry them many years. Even without a Super Bowl victory, I think the Packer's won-loss record would have been much higher if they had retained Favre.
But what happens if the Jets do go all the way - or even just get in the playoffs and the Packers do not? All the bad decisions of the coaching staff, the management, and the stockholders (for putting up with the coaches and managers) will be exposed, and the damage to the franchise will be just as lingering as would a Super Bowl victory or playoff appearance would be beneficial.
At the end of the day, Brett Favre has to play until he can't any more. It's in his nature, and the Packers should have found a way for him to do that in Green Bay. The Jets were willing to give up Chad Pennington, who was a first round draft pick and is loved and respected in the Jet's locker room. With Matt Flynn and Brian Bohm on board, the Packers should have been willing to do the same with Rodgers to make room for the one guy who eclipsed even the legacy of Bart Starr in their history. As a die-hard Packer fan, I think they owed him that much - and I believe it was their best business decision as well.
Of course, maybe I am wrong. Maybe the Packers know something I don't (I certainly hope so). Maybe they will go all they way with Aaron Rodgers. If they do, I will be cheering them all the way.
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