Gustav Update #3

We took our vote, and the consensus is to leave. It was not unanimous. Given the latest projections, I am not in the least worried about water damage at our house, but there are three things that do bother me enough that I think evacuating is a good idea:

Tornados. Storm surge, wind velocity, and precipitation can all be predicted as the storm draws nearer, but Tornados are especially prevelant on the east side of a hurricane or tropical storm. Fay — which never reached hurricane strength — spawned over 100 tornados.

Damage to the car from flying debris. Even if there is not a tornado near us, flying debris could damage our just-acquired mini-van to the point it is not drivable. Since that vehicle is the only one my entire family depends on, I don't want to take that chance.

Lack of basic services after the storm. While we prepared for staying, the water and provisions won't last more than 4 days, and that is if we are very prudent. From what local officials have been saying, it could be over a week before electricity is restored, and longer than that before the grocery stores are open.

So we are leaving. We hope to be on the road between 2 and 3 PM. Currently, our plan is to take I-10 east out of the city, then I-59 north to Laurel, MS. At that point, we will decide whether to continue north to Meridian (where we have some friends that offered to put us up), or east on US 84 to Dothan, AL.

Rest assured, we aren't taking any chances with our safety. I'll post again as soon as I can.

Gustav Updates #1 & #2

With Gustav taking aim at us in the form of a Category 5 hurricane, it is time once again to send out my periodic hurricane updates. I will send first via email, and then post here as time permits. If you don't already receive my hurricane updates and would like to, please send me an email at thechuck@mac.com.

Gustav Update #1 (August 29, 2008; 6:45 PM)

Yesterday I send the following message to my Hurricane mailing list:

Well, I was going to do a lengthier 3rd Anniversary of Katrina update, but with Gustav giving us plenty of warning, Janis and I have been keeping busy getting our ducks in a row, so to speak.

Nonetheless, I did have time to do a small update, which you can view at www.macchuck.com.

For those of you who haven't called or sent a text message yet, we haven't decided whether or not we will be evacuating for Gustav and probably won't decide until sometime on Sunday. If I had to make a decision right now, based on what I am seeing so far, we would stay here as the winds will probably not be much more than tropical storm strength (again, based on what we know now).

Believe me, we will take no chances, but please remember, our house had absolutely no damage from Katrina, so we actually feel we might be safer here than with the nutbuckets on the road for anything less than a direct hit.

I'll keep you updated as things change.

Gustav Update #2 (August 30, 2008; 2:30 PM)

Today, Janis and I have been busy moving things out of the yard into the garage and cleaning coolers and water buckets. The state police is ready to start contra flow on the Interstates as early as this evening (it was not supposed to start until tomorrow).

Gustav was just upgraded to a category 5 during FEMA's most recent news conference — and it hasn't even hit Cuba yet. The area of Cuba it is going to go over is flat and narrow, so significant weakening is not expected to happen. One ominous sign: the Sunday paper just arrived.

We are going to continue to prepare for both staying and leaving. Today we are getting our important papers together and packing clothes. We also cleaned all our coolers and got out the styrofoam coolers we have been saving for just this occasion. We went to the store and picked up some last minute provisions. Whether we stay or leave, we will have the fixens' for some awesome gumbo to feed people.

Tomorrow we will fill the bathtub with water, as well as two 5 gallon coolers and a bunch of pickle buckets, in case we need clean water. We have two full tanks of propane, should they turn the gas off.

We will be taking a vote as a family tomorrow at 11AM as to whether to stay or leave - a vote which will not be final by any means, should we decide at that point to stay. We can always leave a bit later. The important thing will be to see what the storm's track and intensity forecast is tomorrow (Sunday) AM. We do know that it is highly unlikely for it to hit Louisiana as a Category 4 storm, let alone a category 5.

Remember the Walmart that was looted after Katrina? There are now 200 New Orleans police cars parked in the parking lot adjacent to it. Remember the scene at the New Orleans Convention Center after Katrina? There are now 1500-2000 National Guard troops stationed there using it as a staging area. My only concern is why they brought in about 200 howitzers there as well. What the heck do they need those for?

For Katrina, New Orleans had approximately 1600 police officers, 200 of which left the city. Today, as I write this, there are about 1500 police officers in the city and another almost 2000 National Guard troops in town. New Orleans is in a much better position to handle this storm.

Also, what they call "assisted evacuations" are happening. The storm has 17 places identified throughout the city where people can go if they have no other way to get out of town. A city bus picks people up at those spots and takes them to Union Station, where they get on a bus or a train. So far they have moved over 5000 people out of town and are planning on moving as many as 35,000 out this way. They have 700 buses on contract, each of which holds 50 people.

The Mayor has asked that all tourists leave New Orleans now. The last flight out of New Orleans will be at 6PM tonight.

This just in: Janis' part-time boss (who is a retired petroleum engineer) has some inside information from the forecasting service used by the oil companies that there will not be any flooding by our house, but it will be very windy. They are still projecting the storm to curve and go west of the city as a Cat 2 or 3.

Should we decide to leave, we will probably go to Dothan, Alabama. The mother-in-law of the person who used to work for me at MacSpeech has asked us to come there. (She stayed with us for Mia's third birthday party.) It is about a 6 hour drive normally, so we think probably 12 hours under these circumstances.

Tonight we are going to have dinner at Coop's Place - to check up on people and make sure we have their phone numbers, as well as help eat some of the remaining food (we are already pretty cleaned out, except for what is frozen).

For those of you tracking the storm, here is my favorite site:

http://www.stormpulse.com/

Exciting times. I'll write more as I can.

On Favre

I am not an avid sports fan. For the most part, I am a "fair weather" fan who loves to see certain teams go all the way. The only way I'll watch a World Series is if the Cubs are in it. Hockey doesn't interest me at all, and I'll be watching anything but the Olympics. I admit I'll be keeping an eye on the New Orleans Hornets this year, but otherwise, I haven't followed basketball since Michael Jordan played for the bulls.

But then there is professional football.

I will follow the Packers and Saints win or lose. There is something about the game that piques my interest and motivates me to keep watching. But I must admit the latest chapter in the Favre-Packer relationship has me puzzled.

Favre Partly to Blame

To be fair, Brett brought this on himself. I can understand how he felt when the Giants stunned the Packers and their fans by knocking Green Bay out of their Super Bowl bid last year. He told the media that he was retiring because anything short of a Super Bowl victory this year would be disappointing for him and with so many good teams, such a victory could not be assured simply by his return.

I get it. He was tired - exhausted even - from playing one of his best seasons ever. He was shocked by the loss. Even so, he should have kept his mouth shut and waited for things to settle down before making any rash decisions. Like Michael Jordan, to stop playing the game would be like trying to stop breathing. Anyone who followed Favre's career at all knows this about him, even if he did not know it about himself until earlier this year.

If you don't think Favre is motivated to play, consider this: the Packers offered him a $20 million marketing deal to stay retired, which he turned down. That's a lot of future-generation-little-Favres' college educations to pass up.

Packers Also to Blame

As much as all of this could have been avoided had Favre just waited until this past spring to see how he felt about playing again before saying anything, I feel the Packers have made a huge mistake by letting him go. For the past 16 years the Packers have been defined by Brett Favre's leadership. To not have #4 leading the team - especially after such a great season last year - is very perplexing.

But it is all about business, after all. Aaron Rodgers is getting old sitting on the bench. The Packers, mindful of this and with Favre waffling regarding his return, bet the farm on Rodgers. Their commitment is commendable. Their desire not to go back on their word to him shows their integrity as a business. But businesses are about money, and sometimes circumstances change that require them to make tough decisions.

For instance, considering Aaron Rodgers seems to be either extremely unlucky or injury prone, the Packers acquired two promising, extremely talented backup quarterbacks in Matt Flynn (from LSU) and Brian Bohm (Louisville). Bohm was named the 2005 Big East Offensive Player of the Year while Flynn lead LSU's Tigers to victory in the BCS Championship game last year. So, should Aaron Rodgers not work out, they have plenty of talent. Like I said, it is strictly business. The Packers will have no problem replacing Rodgers with either Flynn or Bohm should it become necessary to do so.

But was that really the best business decision?

Brett Favre is a brand. To not be in a Packers uniform tarnishes that brand. It is as simple as that. The Packers originally said they would not trade him to a conference rival because they were concerned with "tarnishing his legacy." Bull. They were concerned the coveted combination of Favre and Randy Moss might beat the pants off them. It is as simple as that.

I totally understand Favre's desire to play. Professional athletes hardly ever retire after a good season. In fact, most professional athletes either retire from an injury, or when their performance degrades to the point they can no longer compete at a level expected from them by themselves, their team, and their fans. Favre - coming off one of his best years ever - should have known at least that much about himself before retiring.

Where are the Owners?

The Green Bay Packers are unique in that they are owned by a community of shareholders, most of whom live in Green Bay. I don't know the extent to which stockholders have rights in a situation like this, but I do know that each stockholder has voting rights. I also know that an owner of a team can instruct its coaches to do certain things - whether they want to do them or not. Finally, I believe the owner(s) of a professional sports franchise has a responsibility to see the team is managed in a way that represents the best potential financial success. It seems to me the stockholders of the Green Bay Packers have failed both the fans and the team by not forcing the coaching staff and management to retain Favre.

Packers Took The Biggest Risk

The biggest shock will happen during this football season. Odds are the Packers will not make it to the Super Bowl under Aaron Rodgers. As Favre already pointed out, there are too many other good teams out there. I want you to pay close attention to the Packers this year and wait for the head coach or GM to utter something similar to the following phrase:

We knew going into this season it would be a rebuilding year for us.

Remember - you heard it here first, folks.

There is no need for a rebuilding year. Favre had a great offense at his command last year. The key players are back, and the offense has been shored up with their draft picks. This year's team - with Favre as Quarterback - would have been as talented as the 1996 Packers who went all the way. Perhaps even more so, as the current offense does not depend on guys like Desmond Howard to make the key plays.

While I think it unlikely that either the Favre-less Packers or Favre-enabled Jets will make it to the Super Bowl this year, I think it would have been much more likely that Green Bay could have made it with Favre at the helm. A Super Bowl victory does wonders for a team's bottom line and will carry them many years. Even without a Super Bowl victory, I think the Packer's won-loss record would have been much higher if they had retained Favre.

But what happens if the Jets do go all the way - or even just get in the playoffs and the Packers do not? All the bad decisions of the coaching staff, the management, and the stockholders (for putting up with the coaches and managers) will be exposed, and the damage to the franchise will be just as lingering as would a Super Bowl victory or playoff appearance would be beneficial.

At the end of the day, Brett Favre has to play until he can't any more. It's in his nature, and the Packers should have found a way for him to do that in Green Bay. The Jets were willing to give up Chad Pennington, who was a first round draft pick and is loved and respected in the Jet's locker room. With Matt Flynn and Brian Bohm on board, the Packers should have been willing to do the same with Rodgers to make room for the one guy who eclipsed even the legacy of Bart Starr in their history. As a die-hard Packer fan, I think they owed him that much - and I believe it was their best business decision as well.

Of course, maybe I am wrong. Maybe the Packers know something I don't (I certainly hope so). Maybe they will go all they way with Aaron Rodgers. If they do, I will be cheering them all the way.